A Soviet spacecraft launched in 1972 that failed to reach its original destination is expected to make an uncontrolled return to Earth within the next few days.
The 500 kg lander, known as Kosmos 482, was on its way to Venus when a malfunction occurred, preventing it from escaping Earth’s orbit. While most of the mission’s components re-entered the atmosphere and disintegrated within a decade, the landing capsule – a small spherical object of about one metre in diameter – remained stranded in orbit for 53 years, gradually losing altitude. Its long orbital drift may soon end.
Marco Langbroek, a Dutch satellite tracker and scientist at Delft University of Technology predicts the failed Kosmos 482 will re-enter the atmosphere around 10 May, an estimate roughly echoed by the US Aerospace Corporation which also monitors space debris. If the capsule survives re-entry, Langbroek estimates it could crash to Earth at speeds of up to 242 km/h.
Had it succeeded, Kosmos 482 would have extended the Soviet Union’s pioneering planetary exploration programme, arriving on Venus less than two years after Venera 7 achieved the first successful soft landing on another planet.
The spacecraft’s potential impact zone spans a vast region between 51.7° north and south latitude, ranging from cities like London and Edmonton (Canada) in the north, to South America’s Cape Horn in the south. With over 70% of the Earth’s surface covered by water, Langbroek notes that ‘chances are good it will indeed end up in some ocean’.
He adds that the actual risk to humans is minimal: ‘It’s similar to that of a random meteorite fall, several of which happen each year. You run a bigger risk of getting hit by lightning in your lifetime.’
Indeed, the National Weather Service estimates the lifetime odds of being struck by lightning in the US at about 1 in 15,300, with even lower odds globally.
A Soviet spacecraft is expected to crash land on Earth this week. If it survives reentry, Kosmos 482's possible landing zone includes the entire contiguous United States, the UK, Australia, South America, and Africa. https://t.co/8NWbmvfoq1 pic.twitter.com/uf6cyE0DYs
— AccuWeather (@accuweather) May 5, 2025
What might happen on re-entry?
Although the capsule is expected to re-enter this week, it remains uncertain how much of the half-ton structure will survive atmospheric re-entry. Langbroek compares it to ‘crashing your car into a wall at 150 miles an hour’.
Several outcomes are possible:
- Parachute deployment – Highly unlikely: The lander still carries its original parachute system. However, after more than five decades in space, experts doubt it would still function. If it did, it could enable a gentle descent – a surprising tribute to Soviet engineering.
- Heat-shield failure – Most likely, best case: According to Dr Jonathan McDowell of the Harvard – Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, if the heat shield fails, the capsule would likely burn up entirely during re-entry.
- Intact fall – Still possible: If the heat shield holds, ‘You have a half-ton metal object falling from the sky,’ warns McDowell. In that case, some fragments may survive splashdown or – less probably – reach land.
While the uncontrolled nature of the re-entry has sparked concern, past incidents are somehow reassuring. In 2022, a large Chinese Long March 5B booster rocket made an uncontrolled re-entry over the Indian Ocean with no reported damage. Similarly, in 2018, the defunct Tiangong-1 space station burned up over the South Pacific, with no debris reaching inhabited areas.
